Reader Comments You Want To Read

Posted: July 7, 2009 in Uncategorized

  
 
 

With the TVC being launched in PRC in the past 10 days, City of Dreams seems to be gathering quite some traction in the market. I have visited a few times this week and have had trouble getting on a table with less than 4 people….last Saturday night was packed. The halcien days experienced by Sands, Wynn and Venetian where operators could ‘open the door and they will come’have long past.
Comments such as ‘COD=Dead’are short sighted and ignorant. Certainly a number of successful casinos I have visited in the past few weeks have also experienced nights when they are ‘dead’, this is not something synonimous with City of Dreams.
Businesses take time to build and City of Dreams is no exception.

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Comment By:    yub667                                 8-Jul-09 07:22 pm  (On Yahoo Message Board)

COD = Dead

yub667Went to COD on three different days/nights… last Friday was the worst…the floor was dead… COD has a few slots the other casinos don’t have but with the Chinese mentality it’s a table games market… botton line is there’s too much capacity in Macau…other casino building projects are simply on hold…

COD is a nice place but far from spectacular… the Hard Rock on the second floor is just plain dull…

LVS might be in the catbird seat in SE Asia… we made a five day side trip to Singapore… the Lion City is beautiful and will be a real competitor for hot concrete and hellishly crowded Macau as it’s just a 3+ hour plane ride from here…

I’m out of casino stocks now but if I wanted to get back in (and not in Vegas) it would be on the LVS IPO… Macau will do fine in the long run and with two casinos here and the Marina Sands going up in beautiful Singapore LVS will be the most robust US player in SE Asia… lots of money in Singapore… the high end shopping on Orchard Rd. is amazing…

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Comment by:   theconmanjd

theconmanjd

Re: Expertir: CoDs’ First Month Performance      6-Jul-09 08:22 am    (On Yahoo Message Board)

It sounds like the journalist would do a better job managing COD then the current team.

0.8% hold is so unexcuseable, they must be the laughing stock of the industry right now.

 

 

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Comment by:  Loebsco

 

 

 

loebsco

Expertir: CoDs’ First Month Performance      5-Jul-09 10:43 pm (On Yahoo Message Board)

Two items:

First this guy at expertir, though based on his prior writings is a full-fledged MPEL skeptic, actually gives a much more balanced assessment of CoD than I would have given him credit for. But it’s rather odd that on the one hand he implies CoD has managed Mass quite well but then faults management for not managing the hold rate better on VIP.

Second, he quotes my favorite preferies Destination-Macau which after constant bombardment of MPEL/HO/PACKER/COD actually feigns some journalblogalistic integrity with “inauspicious start in June, but it wasn’t exactly a disaster”. Actually I believe the whack-job there is trying to cover his ass in case the “Disaster” that he has predicted for 3 years doesn’t materialize.

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David Sofer

LOOKING FORWARD TO LEARNING MORE ABOUT YOU EXPERT IR.
YOUR DEPTH OF INSIGHT AND “UP IN THE HELICOPTER” ANALYSIS ARE SO VERY REFRESHING IN AN INDUSTRY CLOGGED BY SUCH SLOW AND LAZY SENIOR MANAGEMENT PEOPLE WHO HOLD THEIR POSITIONS MAINLY THROUGH CRONYISM AND REGULATORY OBSTACLES TO RECRUITMENT OF INNOVATIVE MANAGERS FROM OUTSIDE THE GAMING INDUSTRY. THE LION CITY GOVERNMENT HAD BEST BE LISTENING TO YOU BECAUSE SHELDON ADELSON WILL NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE EXCEPT IT BECAUSE IT AUTHORIZES HIM TO BE IN IR BUSINESS IN SINGAPORE.
REGARDS, DAVID SOFER

 

   
David Sofer
twitter.com/BaccaratWizard

Expert IR, I was reviewing Las Vegas Sands Corporation’s March 2nd of 2009 SEC 10-K Filing at page 19 under section header “Development Agreement with Singapore Tourism Board” it says: “There will be a casino tax of 15% imposed on the gross gaming revenue from the casino, except in the case of gaming by premium players, in which case a casino tax of 5% will be imposed on the gross gaming revenue generated from such players… MBS will be permitted to extend casino credit to persons who are not Singapore citizens or permanent residents, but will not be permitted to extend casino credit to Singapore citizens or permanent residents except to premium players… key constraint imposed on the casino under the Development Agreement is the total size of the gaming area, which must not be more than 15,000 square meters… casino located within Marina Bay Sands may not have more than 2,500 gaming machines, but there is no limit on the number of tables for casino games permitted in the casino….November 2008, the Casino Regulatory Authority of Singapore… informed us, following our submission, that our conceptual casino floor plan for Marina Bay Sands complies with the CRA’s requirements for casino layout. This floor plan would permit Marina Bay Sands to feature up to 1,000 table games (increasing its original layout from 600)….” Please comment on these details thanks!
Regards,
David Sofer

     expertir

Expert IR’s Reply:   To David Sofer

Yes you are right about the constraints imposed on the IR casinos.
The key limitation imposed is the 15,000 sq.m. practical casino floor space. Capping of Slot units to 2,500 is to allow space for VIP and mass table games. Singapore IR hopes to rally in big business for VIP gaming.
Marina Bay Sands said they would increase to 1,000 gaming tables… this is meant for the syndicate banks/investors/analysts to hear. Adelson needs to raise more monies… thats all. Anyway, what will be the real table utilization rates for 1,000 tables? And, manning costs? The answer is clear.

 

 

David Sofer

Great analysis, Expert IR! Uncle Harry is no genius but he is RIGHT about gambling! Underlying your bullet points is the fact that IR success will probably generate that Lion City gambling epidemic that Uncle Harry is afraid of, only somewhat held in check now by geography. Around Las Vegas there is word that a local Baccarat group of 100 that plays Baccarat according to the teachings of a brilliant Harvard educated overseas Chinese mathematical genius is starting up a Lion City Chinese Baccarat group to play IR Baccarat, there is further word that $100 million US in funding will be behind them by the time first IR opens its casino gates! So, Expert IR, even more than you know, your EBITDA analysis is SPOT ON. Cheers!

David Sofer

 

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liberty

RE:   VIP Win @ 0.8%                                   Submitted on July 19, 2009

For a long time VIP play to many casinos is an indication of status or ego rather than a profit center, not just in Macau but Las Vegas as well.  If casinos can only win 0.8% of the turnover (after tax) how can they expect to make money from this type of play?  Plus the high price tag of all the investment for the VIP players.  One thing I have a deep doubt is that there is very likely some “under table” deals, for example the play that is not recorded. 
  

Gordon.USA
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 David Sofer
macaucasinoworld.com/baccarat_great_learning/

Regarding Expert IR Deep’s Thought:
VIP Gaming Business = “You really need the RIGHT numbers produced by a specific condition/cycle of the business; and based on these numbers build your momentum.”

Yes, Expert IR, truer words were never spoken. So very easy to understand but so very difficult to successfully put into practice. Would that Expert IR be made operating boss of Lion City IR! All Lion City leaders are deeply worried that an MBS VIP gaming failure will boomerang into an overly intense mass media Mass Market marketing advertising promotion campaign that inevitably will generate a big problem, a major Singaporean Chinese Baccarat gambling epidemic with its associated social problems that Lion City does not want or need! Please become Lion City IR operating boss, Expert IR, a Lion City IR VIP gaming business model is very doable but only for a very thoughtful and very hard-working IR boss, not current lazy bosses…

 

 

Expert IRReply from expert IR                       

RE:  Lion City’s VIP Gaming Business       (Posted on 20th July 2009)

 

Hi, David.   

Thank you for your hopeful thoughts.

What I would say now is that, history will always repeat itself… only after mistakes are made.   The Lion City’s VIP business arena will not be the same as Macau as many would expect.  It is much more challenging than Macau indeed.  Ask Star Cruises and Genting Resorts (Highland) and they will tell you their stories… 

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RE:  Sands IPO                                                     Submitted on 26th July 2009    liberty

If Adelson thinks he has a leverage over Beijing by threatening to withdraw, he will be seeing the end of his casino kingdom.  Beijing will keep Macau prosperous but would never let casino moguls there, especially those from Las Vegas making too much money.  That’s what the water tap means.  Another problem is the size limit of Macau.  How many visitors it can accommodate in an area of approximately 36 square kilometers.  The whole city is now jammed, overflowing with cars and pedestrians.  Overbuilding is an issue that both the Macau government and casino owners there have to think about.  By the way who is David Chu?

Gordon, USA
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ExtenzeFrom Extenze on Reader Comments You Want To Read  

23rd Aug, 2009

SUPPORTED BY THE DEVELOPER TOOLS? It was interesting. You seem very knowledgeable in your field.

 

 

Computers & Tech
alexa.com/siteinfo/jibbl.info
johncharrist445@jetfix.ee
24.250.6.217

Comment on Macau’s Macro Management ….  Submitted on 2009/09/21 at 6:27pm

Hello there,
Nice post, I just came across it and I am already a fan.

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Comments
  1. wayburn57 says:

    With the TVC being launched in PRC in the past 10 days, City of Dreams seems to be gathering quite some traction in the market. I have visited a few times this week and have had trouble getting on a table with less than 4 people….last Saturday night was packed. The halcien days experienced by Sands, Wynn and Venetian where operators could ‘open the door and they will come’have long past.
    Comments such as ‘COD=Dead’are short sighted and ignorant. Certainly a number of successful casinos I have visited in the past few weeks have also experienced nights when they are ‘dead’, this is not something synonimous with City of Dreams.
    Businesses take time to build and City of Dreams is no exception. T

  2. David Sofer says:

    THIS IS NOT A COMMENT
    THIS IS A NOTE TO EXPERT IR
    THE TWITTER ACCOUNT HAS BEEN CLOSED BECAUSE TWITTER HAS BEEN DETERMINED TO BE A WASTE OF TIME AND ENERGY
    PLEASE REMOVE THE REFERENCE TO THAT TWITTER ACCOUNT UNDER “TOP CLICKS”
    THE OTHERS ARE STILL OPERATIVE
    THANK YOU
    REGARDS
    DAVID SOFER

  3. Extenze says:

    A SUPPORTED BY THE DEVELOPER TOOLS? It was interesting. You seem very knowledgeable in ypour field.

  4. Rufor says:

    expertir.wordpress.com – da best. Keep it going!

  5. buyvigrx says:

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